The 2025 Bajio Industrial Real Estate Outlook points to tight vacancies, steady rent gains, and active construction across Guanajuato, Querétaro, San Luis Potosí, and Aguascalientes. CBRE México reports 88,118 m² of net absorption in 1Q25 and 175,000 m² of gross demand, led by land sales and tenant expansions. Inventory now totals 14.4 million m², up 4% year over year, with Querétaro delivering over half of new supply.
Vacancy compressed to 3.5% from 4.6% a year earlier. Aguascalientes posted the lowest rate at 1.2%, while Querétaro’s 4.5% reflects new speculative space entering unleased. About 493,042 m² is under construction, 33% pre-leased as build-to-suit, supported by a healthy slate of speculative projects. This backdrop strengthens the Bajio economic outlook for 2025.
Commercialized space shares show Guanajuato at 46% of gross absorption, Querétaro at 24%, San Luis Potosí at 18%, and Aguascalientes at 12%. The Ministry of Economy cites US$4.33 billion in 2024 FDI into the region, with Guanajuato and Querétaro capturing 47%, driven by investors from Japan, Germany, and Canada. These flows align with a broader Mexico industrial real estate forecast that highlights nearshoring and export growth.
PGIM Real Estate’s Mexico 2025 Outlook notes tight national vacancies, rapid rent growth, and average industrial cap rates near 7.2%, supporting ~10% unlevered returns after capex and modest cap rate expansion. As manufacturers add local value and trade volumes rise, tenants can absorb higher rents. This momentum validates both speculative and build-to-suit strategies in the Bajio and informs any commercial property market analysis for U.S.-based investors.
Discover Bajio provides on-the-ground insight and data-driven guidance for investors seeking clarity in the Bajio Industrial Real Estate Forecast. With resilient demand, robust pipelines, and disciplined capital, the region enters 2025 with fundamentals that favor long-term positioning and timely deployment.
Current Trends in Bajio Industrial Real Estate
The Bajio continues to set the pace for Mexico’s production corridor. Recent Bajio market research shows steady leasing, active development, and tight vacancies that shape today’s industrial real estate trends. Users favor modern parks near highways and rail, while landlords respond with faster build-to-suit cycles and selective speculative space.
Growing Demand for Industrial Spaces
In 1Q25, CBRE México reported 88,118 m² of net absorption and roughly 175,000 m² of gross demand across leases and land deals. Vacancy tightened to 3.5% year over year, led by Aguascalientes at 1.2% and Querétaro at 4.5% after new speculative deliveries.
Developers have 493,042 m² under construction, with about one-third pre-leased as build-to-suit, signaling durable requirements. PGIM Real Estate links tenant demand to rising truck and rail flows into the United States, reinforcing rental growth and the broader industrial real estate trends shaping the region.
Takeaway for site selectors: warehousing trends in Bajio favor clear-height space, flexible loading, and near-border logistics lanes supported by resilient power and labor pools.
Key Sectors Driving Growth
Automotive and light manufacturing account for more than half of regional demand, according to CBRE. Guanajuato captured 46% of gross absorption, Querétaro 24% on strong leasing, San Luis Potosí 18% with industrial park land sales, and Aguascalientes 12% driven by build-to-suit wins.
Foreign direct investment reached about US$4.33 billion in 2024, concentrated in Guanajuato and Querétaro with capital from Japan, Germany, and Canada. PGIM notes a move up the value chain in Mexico, which increases needs for advanced production lines and logistics, a key insight confirmed by ongoing Bajio market research.
Impact of E-commerce on Industrial Real Estate
Manufacturing still anchors the region, yet national logistics gains from e-commerce have pushed rents higher since 2021, as PGIM highlights. Tight vacancies in the Bajio and stronger cross-border freight into Texas, California, Arizona, and New Mexico point to deeper distribution networks.
Speculative and build-to-suit models now coexist to meet e-commerce specs such as modern clear heights, robust dock counts, trailer parking, and stable power. CBRE flags active pipelines and industrial park land buys in Aguascalientes and San Luis Potosí, while Querétaro’s infrastructure pipeline supports future logistics and warehousing absorption.
| Metric | Bajio Snapshot (1Q25) | Insight for Site Strategy |
|---|---|---|
| Net Absorption | 88,118 m² (CBRE México) | Validates continued leasing momentum amid industrial real estate trends |
| Gross Demand | ~175,000 m² (leases + land) | Signals active user tours and land banking in prime corridors |
| Vacancy Rate | 3.5% regionwide; 1.2% Aguascalientes; 4.5% Querétaro | Competitive markets require early commitments and incentives |
| Under Construction | 493,042 m² (33% pre-leased BTS) | Pipeline aligns with warehousing trends in Bajio and production shifts |
| Sector Mix | Auto + light manufacturing lead | Bajio market research shows durable supplier ecosystems |
| Cross-Border Flows | Higher truck and rail volumes (PGIM) | Strengthens e-commerce and export-oriented logistics nodes |
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Future Projections for Bajio’s Industrial Market
The Mexico industrial real estate forecast points to another busy year as nearshoring deepens supply chains and expands footprints across Guanajuato, Querétaro, Aguascalientes, and San Luis Potosí. Market signals in the industrial real estate development forecast suggest steady leasing, disciplined deliveries, and clearer pricing for core and value-add strategies. For investors, manufacturing growth in Bajio remains the anchor that supports long-term planning.
Expected Growth in Investment Opportunities
With vacancy near 3.5% and inventory poised to grow 4% to about 14.4 million m², landlord-friendly terms should continue into 2025, according to CBRE. PGIM Real Estate’s national view signals above-trend rent gains, a Mexico industrial cap rate near 7.2%, and an expected 10% unlevered return for stabilized assets after capex.
These metrics underline strong investment opportunities in Bajio for buy-and-hold and value-add plays. Rents have climbed around 10% per year in the last five years, and stock roughly doubled through 2023, reinforcing the Mexico industrial real estate forecast. Spec builds can seize upside where vacancy is tight, while pre-leased BTS helps secure yield with less leasing risk.
Factors Influencing Future Developments
Nearshoring and the rise in U.S. import share from Mexico since 2016 are fueling multi-year expansions, with automotive and light manufacturing leading the charge. FDI of about US$4.33 billion in 2024 into the Bajio—led by Guanajuato and Querétaro—supports pipeline depth and timing.
Local dynamics will shape the industrial real estate development forecast. Querétaro’s higher vacancy from recent speculative deliveries points to entry points for selective buys, while Aguascalientes’ 1.2% vacancy suggests pre-leasing or BTS to lock space. Land plays in Aguascalientes and San Luis Potosí align with active tenant expansions tracked by CBRE.
Risk remains part of the Mexico industrial real estate forecast. Potential U.S. tariff shifts are embedded in PGIM’s cap rate work via a 250 bps country risk premium, partly offset by stronger rent growth. Even with that, manufacturing growth in Bajio keeps the region’s appeal durable.
Role of Sustainability in Industrial Projects
As production becomes more tech-heavy, tenants value efficient layouts, reliable power, and specs that cut downtime and operating costs. New power plants adding an estimated 2,465 MW to Mexico’s grid bolster resilience—key for advanced manufacturing and logistics.
In the Bajio, BTS accounts for about a third of space under construction, enabling energy-efficient systems, higher power densities, and compliance with ESG mandates. Tight markets motivate developers to future-proof assets, a theme woven through every industrial real estate development forecast and central to capturing manufacturing growth in Bajio while enhancing investment opportunities in Bajio.
Why Choose Discover Bajio for Investments?
Discover Bajio helps U.S. investors act on the Bajio Industrial Real Estate Forecast with clear, data-backed moves. Our team blends local execution with third-party sources like CBRE México and PGIM Real Estate to deliver precise Bajio market research. We focus on practical steps that turn nearshoring demand into durable returns and lower risk.
Our Expertise in Bajio Industrial Properties
We specialize in Guanajuato, Querétaro, San Luis Potosí, and Aguascalientes. In Guanajuato, we target top absorption markets, which captured 46% of 1Q25 gross take-up. In Querétaro, we leverage speculative deliveries to open entry points. In San Luis Potosí, we structure land deals inside established industrial parks. In low-vacancy Aguascalientes (1.2%), we deploy BTS strategies to secure space ahead of the curve.
Our underwriting reflects Mexico’s cap rate environment near 7.2%, rental growth that is set to outpace historic norms, and a 10% unlevered return outlook for stabilized assets cited by PGIM. We scenario-test tariff risk and cap rate shifts to protect investment opportunities in Bajio across cycles. That discipline keeps our Bajio market research tied to real pricing and real timelines.
Commitment to Client Satisfaction and Support
We deliver end-to-end support: market research, park vetting, power and infrastructure diligence, lease structuring, and BTS coordination built to institutional standards. Our approach blends nearshoring signals, FDI momentum in the Bajio, and each submarket’s absorption and vacancy to match capital with right-fit assets.
With transparent reporting and focus on long-term performance, we help clients capture value-add upside while managing capex, rate, and policy risks. Backed by an active pipeline of 493,042 m²—about one-third BTS—and resilient demand into 2025, we position investment opportunities in Bajio to benefit from tight supply and measured growth informed by rigorous Bajio market research.
Discover Bajio is your your ally in the search for Industrial Property Investment in Bajio